- To estimate the future climate over the Aegean Sea.
Three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs), KNMI-RACMO2, MPI-M-REMO and RegCM are used, forced by the A1B SRES emission scenario, for the time period until the end of the 21st century.
The simulated air temperature, wind, precipitation and sea level pressure, resulting from the three models for the time span 1961-1990, are first compared and evaluated with observations.
New data archives for air temperature, wind, atmospheric pressure are developed for a period up to 2100.
Special attention is given to the development of a new data archive for the wind (speed and direction) with a spatial analysis of 10x10km for the Aegean Sea (1961-2100) based on the downscaling of the original model RegCM.
- To assess climate change effects on the marine climate of the Aegean Sea. Estimation of mean sea level rise, as well as changes in waves and storm surges up to 2100.
Sea level change is assessed from the state-of-the-art results of all available climate IPCC models, which provide information on the steric and dynamic effects, and mass changes due to ice melting based on published information.
Waves are computed by means of the SWAN wave model for the time period 1961-2100. The model is calibrated with available in situ measurements and satellite data.
A two-dimensional model of hydrodynamic ocean circulation is used to simulate storm surges for the time period 1961-2100.
Both models use input data from the three RCMs.
- To quantify climate change effects on the severity and frequency of extreme meteorological and marine events.
Extreme temperature and winds and characteristics of deep depressions over the Aegean Sea are analysed, utilizing both parametric and non-parametric techniques. Extreme waves and storm surges in the Aegean are then processed using extreme value methods for both time periods 1961-2000 and 2000-2100, including estimation of trends, fitting of appropriate distributions, estimating return levels associated with selected return periods and quantifying prediction uncertainty.
- To estimate Vulnerability Indexes, caused by the extreme marine climate in Greek coastal areas prone to flooding and erosion.
Flood and Erosion Vulnerability Indexes (FVI and EVI) are calculated respectively, by means of the quantified flood and erosion potentials of the study sites.
Flood potential is estimated through the maximum water level associated to each storm including meteorological effects (storm surge) and wave induced run-up. Erosion potential of the storms is assessed through the magnitude of the induced profile changes, combining a beach profile evolution model with beach profile predictors.
- To analyze possible climate change effects on the design and functioning of marine and coastal structures in Greek coastal regions.
Methodologies and good practices to evaluate the response of structures to wave climate change and mean sea level variability. Within this framework, the vulnerability of such structures is also assessed and adaptation measures of such structures to future climate conditions are proposed.