Work Package 1 (WP1)

Climatic predictions with Regional Climate Models for the Greek seas.

WT1.1 - GEO_AUTh:
Simulated data for wind, pressure and air temperature (from ENSEMBLES (2004-2009) data archive) will initially be compared and evaluated with observations for the time period 1961-1990. The simulated data will be derived from three Regional Climate Models KNMI-RACMO2, MPI-M-REMO and RegCM, for which future projections are available until the end of the 21st century.
Future projections are  forced by the A1B SRES scenario (Jacob et al. 2007).
WT1.2 - GEO_AUTh:
A data archive of several meteorological parameters (air temperature, wind, precipitation), as well as atmospheric circulation parameters (sea level pressure) will be developed for the three above mentioned RCMs for the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean region for the control run period (1961-1990). The aforementioned models will be validated for the first time for their ability in the development of future projections for the specific domain of study.
WT1.3 - GEO_AUTh:
A data archive for temperature, wind and atmospheric pressure of the models future projections forced by the A1B SRES emission scenario will be developed for the time period until the end of the 21st century.
WT1.4 - GEO_AUTh:
A new data archive for the wind (speed and direction) with a spatial analysis of 10x10km for the Aegean Sea (1961-2100) based on the downscaling of the original model RegCM (its primary analysis is 25x25km), will be created.
WT1.5 - GEO_AUTh:
Future changes of the mean climate conditions and extreme events until the end of the 21st century will be examined and analysed. The relationship of the atmospheric circulation (using an up-to-date automatic classification scheme) with the examined climatological parameters will be analyzed as well as the stability of this relationship until the end of the 21st century under different climate conditions due to the anthropogenic emissions.
WT1.6 - MARINE_AEGEAN:
Determination of the variability of mean sea level height in the Greek Seas during the reference period (1961-2000), as well as the assessment of projected mean sea level rise in the Greek coastal areas from updated climate model results following the IPCC emission scenarios.

Deliverables

1.1. Technical Report - GEO_AUTh
DUE DATE: 30/06/2012
Assessment of the capabilities of the Regional Climate Models for the simulation of the general atmospheric circulation, as well as the simulation of local meteorological parameters. (WT 1.1)
1.2. New data archive - GEO_AUTh
DUE DATE: 30/06/2013
Several meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature, wind) and atmospheric circulation parameters (sea level pressure) from the three models, at a spatial scale of 25x25km for the eastern Mediterranean region covering the time period from 1961 until 2100. (WTs 1.2 and 1.3).
1.3. New data archive - GEO_AUTh
DUE DATE: 30/06/2013
Wind (speed and direction) with a spatial analysis of 10x10km for the Aegean Sea (1961-2100) based on the downscaling of the original model RegCM. (WT 1.4).
1.4. Technical Report. - GEO_AUTh
DUE DATE: 30/09/2013
Estimations of the future changes of the mean and extreme values of the selected meteorological parameters until the end of the 21st century.(WT 1.5)
1.5. Technical Report - MARINE_AEGEAN
DUE DATE: 30/06/2013
Model estimates of mean sea level for the period 1961-2100 and comparison with satellite altimetry data. (WT 1.6).