Work Package 2 (WP2)

Simulation of wave height, storm surge and sea level accounting for climate change.

Research Teams: NAVAL_NTUA, HYDRO_AUTh, GEO_AUTh
Work Tasks:     4
Duration: 01/01/2012 – 30/06/2014 (30 months)
Person Months: 76.5
Deliverables:   3
The effects of climate change on waves, storm surges and mean sea level will be studied.
 The SWAN wave model and a two-dimensional model of hydrodynamic ocean circulation will be adapted, calibrated and applied, using input data from RCMs of WP1.
The relationships between the circulation types and the storm surges over the Aegean Sea will also be examined.
WT 2.1 - NAVAL_NTUA: The wave prediction system for the Greek Seas will be based on the SWAN wave model (Ris et al. 1999, Booij et al. 1999) and will utilise the wind field data (wind velocity and direction at 10m over the sea level), available through the data base provided by the three aforementioned climatic models. Climatic simulations and predictions will be produced for the periods 1961-2000 and 2000-2100.
WT 2.2 - HYDRO_AUTh:
A high resolution storm surge model (Vries et al. 1995) will be formulated for the Greek seas at large. The model validation and calibration will be performed using historic Sea Level Height data from several insitu stations, located along the Greek coasts (hindcast simulations). Moreover, the validated model will perform different forecast scenarios covering a period of 100 years.       
WT 2.3 -HYDRO_AUTh, GEO_AUTh:
The impact of the meteorological data obtained by the three climatic models to the calculation of waves, storm surges and sea level will be investigated. Correlation analysis of the meteo-results from RCMs with time series of in situ measurements and of computation results will also be conducted (storm track analysis). Storm surge events in the Greek seas and their correlation to meteorological parameters (wind velocity and direction and intensity of the low barometric pressure field) and to types of atmospheric circulation will be examined. The occurrence of high sea level elevation with respect to the duration of the related events and the geographical configuration of the Greek coastal areas will also be studied.
WT 2.4 - GEO_AUTh:
This WT aims at analyzing the relationship between the circulation types and the storm surges over the Aegean Sea and examining if this relationship will remain the same until the end of the 21st century under future climate changes.

Deliverables

2.1. Database- HYDRO_AUTh, NAVAL_NTUA
DUE DATE: 31/12/2013
Database of wave heights mean wave periods, mean wave directions, storm surges and sea levels for the time period 1961 - 2100. (WTs 2.1 and 2.2)
2.2. Technical Report- HYDRO_AUTh
DUE DATE: 30/06/2014
Estimation of the correlation of the studied meteorological parameters with waves, storm surges and sea level. (WT 2.3)
2.3. Technical Report- GEO_AUTh.
DUE DATE: 30/06/2014
Analysis of the relationships and links between the atmospheric circulation and the storm surges under the future climate conditions, due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. (WT 2.4)