Work Package 4 (WP4)

Estimation of climate change effects on coastal vulnerability to flooding and erosion.

Work Tasks:    3
Duration: 01/07/2013 – 30/09/2015 (27 months)
Person Months: 48.5
Deliverables:   2

Estimation of climate change effects on coastal vulnerability to flooding and erosion. Storms will be classified and flood and erosion potential will be assessed.
Vulnerability Indicators (Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) and Erosion Vulnerability Index (EVI)) will be calculated.
The coastal areas of Lesbos, Eastern Macedonia-Thrace and Crete are the regions for the applications of the proposed methodology, which are known to be vulnerable to flooding and erosion
WT 4.1 - HYDRO_AUTh:
Storms, based on similar characteristics of wave height, wave period and total sea level, will be classified for calculating the potential of the study sites to flooding and erosion. To maintain an analogy with existing extreme events classifications, a five-class scale will be adopted, ranging from weak to extreme marine events. Storms will be classified using the wave energy content of storms as a key variable and applying cluster analysis to recorded storms in each one of the studied areas, which are defined as events with significant wave height exceeding a defined threshold (Méndoza & Jiménez 2008). To analyze the magnitude of the storm impact, the two main induced processes, flooding and erosion, will be considered separately.
After storm classification the flood potential of each storm class will be calculated. The flood potential is defined as the maximum elevation of the mean water level associated with each storm class, being calculated as the sum of the contributions of the wave run-up and the storm surge.
The erosion potential can be described as the potential beach erosion induced by the impact of a storm when no constraints exist. It can be characterized by two bulk parameters: the value of maximum beach recession of a given control line in the beach and the maximum eroded volume inside the coastal area.
Beach erosion in selected locations of the coast will be evaluated utilizing the numerical morphodynamical model SBEACH (Larson & Kraus 1989, Wise et al. 1996), as well as advanced numerical models of nonlinear wave propagation, sediment transport and beach morphology evolution caused by wave action and sea level rise (Karambas & Koutitas 2002, Karambas 2002b). Erosion will be estimated for all storm events belonging to each storm class. These eroded volumes will then be parameterized using a profile change parameter JA (Jiménez et al. 1993) and this parameter will be utilized to calculate erosion potential caused by storm events in each class.
    Flood and erosion potentials will then be used to estimate the respective Vulnerability Indicators (Méndoza & Jiménez 2008),  the Flood Vulnerability Index, (FVI) and the Erosion Vulnerability Index  (EVI).  


4.1. Technical Report-HYDRO_AUTh, MARINE_AEGEAN.
DUE DATE: 31/12/2014
Storm classification and estimation of FVIs in the study sites. (WTs 4.1 and 4.2)
4.2. Technical Report, HYDRO_AUTh, MARINE_AEGEAN -.
DUE DATE: 30/09/2015
Estimation of erosion potential and EVIs in the study sites. (WT 4.3)